22 DEC 25 SITREP

1. JD Vance Leads 2028 Republican Presidential Nomination Straw Poll At TPUSA's AmFest 2025

• The Turning Point USA AmericaFest 2025 straw poll showed Vice President JD Vance as the overwhelming favorite for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination, with 84.2 percent of attendees supporting him.
• No other candidate reached double-digit support, with Marco Rubio receiving 4.8 percent, Ron DeSantis 2.9 percent, Donald Trump Jr 1.8 percent, Glenn Youngkin 0.4 percent, Ted Cruz 0.3 percent, 2.5 percent undecided, and 3.1 percent preferring another candidate.
• Approval ratings among attendees were high for senior administration officials, including 92.9 percent approval for Secretary of State Marco Rubio, 94.7 percent for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, and 96.8 percent for Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr, while Attorney General Pam Bondi received 29 percent disapproval and 64.8 percent approval.
• Attendees prioritized winning the midterms, voter integrity, and affordability, supported a moratorium on new immigration at 89.5 percent, viewed Israel as one ally among many at 53.4 percent versus top ally at 33.3 percent, and ranked radical Islam, socialism and Marxism, mass migration, and the economy as the leading threats to the United States.

2. Megyn Kelly on Power Struggles Within Conservative Media

• Speaking at TPUSA AmFest, Megyn Kelly said the conservative movement is fractured over Israel and that the conflict has moved into open, public confrontation rather than private disagreement.
• She described pressure campaigns pushing conservative figures to issue public condemnations, cut ties with specific commentators, and silence dissent instead of allowing disagreement on Israel-related questions.
• She directly criticized Ben Shapiro for calling others “cowards,” advocating “excommunication” of figures like Tucker Carlson, and asserting influence over who is deemed acceptable within the movement. 
• She named Bari Weiss as aligning with those efforts, saying her public statements and endorsements amplified calls to marginalize dissenting voices and restrict access to platforms for noncompliance.

3. Catholic Voter Mobilization Operations And Ballot-Chasing Results In Arizona

• The Catholic Action Network operated inside the Diocese of Phoenix and organized voter mobilization across 96 Catholic parishes using parish captains recruited directly from local churches.
• Disengaged Catholic Republican voter participation increased from 20 percent in the 2020 election to 87 percent in the 2024 election through targeted, parish-based turnout operations.
• The operation used the Turning Point USA application to identify disengaged Catholic Republican voters, followed by coordinated voter registration drives, Catholic-specific call and text scripts, and the mailing of 12,000 Catholic-themed voter information postcards.
• On election day, ballot chasing teams contacted Catholic voters who had not yet voted, provided polling location information, and pushed same-day turnout, with organizers stating the same model will be reused for the 2026 midterm elections.

FINAL WORD

JD Vance’s dominance in the TPUSA AmFest 2025 straw poll clarifies the current preference of attendees for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination. Power struggles among conservative media figures over Israel, donor influence, and control of platforms continue to drive public infighting and factional alignment. At the same time, Catholic voter mobilization in Arizona demonstrates that organized, parish-based operations can materially increase turnout regardless of elite disputes.